Unwiiiiiiiiiind, OpenAI/ORCL, GTC preview, TSEM deep dive, MDB/CRWD/ASTS earnings, CPO debate

First of all, we wish our readers and everyone in the Middle East safe and sound. We never had a dull week during the MS TMT Conference, and this year is even more so, given the Citrini article and rising geopolitical risk. Unwind is the main theme of the market, from IGV vs SOXX to Korea/Japan vs Hong Kong, from value vs growth to Mag7 vs small- and mid-caps. We would not claim to be geniuses at timing the market, but this has been in the cards for a while, given the extreme positioning. On the other hand, AI development remains as strong as it is, if not getting even stronger, evidenced by Anthropic almost doubling ARR in just two months. We believe the key trend within AI remains intact, and flow should return to them as the dust settles. However, stay frosty in the near term.

We may carry out a system upgrade next week in preparation for our major version update at the end of the month. If we confirm that it is necessary, we may pause Substack subscriptions for one week, during which no one’s credit card will be charged. During this period, we may reduce our content output, but we will ensure that essential preview content continues to be published.

This week’s reports

GTC preview - The annual party returns. We believe this round marks a strategic shift for NVDA, from continuing to introduce faster GPUs with higher FLOPS to focusing on building a comprehensive AI factory. We discuss six areas of focus: Vera-Rubin for agentic AI, Rubin CPX for high-throughput inference, Groq LPU for low-latency inference, Feynman, CPO/photonics, and an AI-native storage hierarchy.