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MSFT & AWS 3Q25: Who’s Hitting Capacity Constraints?
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AWS eases capacity bottlenecks and Trainium2 surges, setting up ~25% growth next year as Azure stays GPU-constrained.
MSFT highlights
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Azure grew 40% YoY in USD (39% CC), 1 pt below our model and 1 pt below our bogey, but 2 pts above guidance and Street.
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Azure 4Q25 guide implies 37% YoY, effectively flat vs. 3Q25 (when 37% was guided back in 2Q25), below the bogeyed acceleration.
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Commercial RPO reached $392B, up 51% YoY—the fastest RPO growth in the past year. Excludes the new $250B OpenAI deal.
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Added 2GW of AI data center capacity over the past 12 months (per Satya’s September post); plans to add another 2GW next year, including the Fairwater site in Wisconsin, set to be the world’s largest AI DC.
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Capex came in at $34.9B vs. Street at ~$30B.
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Copilot Studio-driven agent users doubled QoQ, consistent with our Preview callout.
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Capacity remains a meaningful constraint; MSFT is considering leasing more third-party capacity. Internal apps such as M365 Copilot also require GPUs.
AMZN highlights
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