ASML 4Q25: Record-High Bookings Confirm 2027 Growth Trajectory

The most significant highlight of ASML’s 2025 Q4 earnings is the record-breaking net bookings of €13.2 billion. Management guides a positive outlook for 2026, estimating total net sales between €34-39 billion, representing a yoy growth of 4% to 19%. This record bookings level and the revenue growth projected for 2026 reflect customers’ accelerated plans to expand advanced process and memory capacity to meet AI computing demands. Although management currently holds a conservative view on the China market, expecting China’s revenue contribution to normalize (implying a year-on-year decline of ~20%), we continue to believe the China market presents potential upside for ASML’s 2026 revenue growth due to the ongoing aggressive capacity expansion by Chinese memory companies and foundries.

Net Bookings

Net bookings reached €13.2 billion in 4Q25, with EUV systems contributing €7.4 billion, signaling a rapid surge in customer demand. Analyzing the order structure reveals that memory orders were particularly prominent, accounting for 56% of total bookings, which reflects memory customers’ active ordering to secure future capacity for strong HBM and DDR5 demand. Regarding lead times, CFO Roger Dassen explicitly stated that while a portion of the Q4 orders is intended for 2026, the vast majority is for delivery in 2027.

2026 Guidance