AMZNMETA
AMZN:How Anthropic Will Impact AWS Revenue
FUNDA
Anthropic scaling through AWS points to inline 1Q25 ~17% growth, with H2 acceleration likely as ARR hits $5-6B.
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In my previous AMZN quarterly preview, I focused on broad revenue dynamics.
For analysis on how tariffs impact e-commerce, please refer to our case study in our META Preview.
This quarter, given tariff-related complexities making Q2 revenue projections challenging (though outcomes will likely exceed conservative expectations), I've shifted focus to AWS and specifically how Anthropic's rapid scaling affects AWS financials.
Based on our proprietary GPU supply chain tracking and rental price data, I've updated our AWS business model projections. CY25 shows material differentiation from CY24, requiring analysis beyond simple GPU deployment metrics to understand how Anthropic's acceleration impacts AWS revenue.
Key considerations:
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