TSMC 4Q25: AI Anchors a Multi-Year Supercycle; 2nm Momentum & Capex Upside to Drive 2026 Continued Revenue Growth

As we approach the Jan 15 earnings call, the market’s focus has shifted from backward-looking 4Q25 results to 2026 outlook. Our analysis suggests that the convergence of unyielding AI demand and an accelerated 2nm adoption curve will prompt management to issue robust guidance, validating the market’s elevated expectations and reinforcing the bullish sentiment on the AI-driven upcycle.

AI CAGR Acceleration

The most significant potential catalyst for the stock is a revision of the long-term AI growth model. The previous long-term growth targets for AI semiconductor demand are proving too conservative against the backdrop of sustained CSP capex expansion. We expect management to lift the 2024-2029 AI accelerators revenue CAGR up from previous outlook of mid-40s CAGR. This is not merely a cyclical spike but a secular trend, confirming that AI revenue contribution will likely grow faster than initially projected.

2nm Development: Aggressive Customer Engagement