SHOP: Quantifying the Impact of Agentic Commerce

We first mentioned in September that Agentic Commerce could have a significant impact on Shopify, potentially contributing 10% GMV growth in the future.

Since then, we’ve seen increasing discussions about how Agentic Commerce will impact Shopify.

Through this report, we aim to provide a detailed analysis of Agentic Commerce’s impact on Shopify, including what OpenAI and Gemini will bring to Shopify, and how Shopify is partnering with these LLM platforms.

Finally, we’ll also cover how Amazon Rufus and Alibaba are participating in Agentic Commerce.

This report includes extensive sampling research to help us quantify the actual impact of Agentic Commerce on Shopify’s revenue.

Special note: We currently don’t have the capability to make specific judgments about Shopify’s Q3 FY2025 performance, and this is our first deep dive into Shopify. Therefore, the research primarily focuses on what Agentic Commerce will bring to Shopify in 2026-2027.