3Q25 PreER Playbook

Before we head into the 3Q25 earnings season, we want to lay out our views on all AI-related stocks and provide an interim wrap-up. Everything here is grounded in our prior reports and recent field research, and you can easily find the supporting evidence in our past publications.

As we move into 3Q25 earnings, we’ll publish more preview updates, and our views may evolve accordingly.

We’ve experienced three AI narrative shifts over the past year. FundaAI’s research team alerted at nearly every critical narrative shift timing.

The first narrative shift occurred in July-August 2024. The market was at bottom, with significant concerns about CAPEX and macro risks. But researchers were excited about post-training, as top-2 LLMs’ post-training compute usage exceeded pre-training during this period. Strawberry had major weekly updates throughout these months. In our observation, frontline researchers’ sentiment changes typically lead the market by 2-3 months. The market quickly turned optimistic after the launch of O1 Reasoning Models.