LLM update, Clarifying OpenAI’s “Capex Reduction”, NVDA, CRM, PANW, ASTS

We finally could catch our breath in the shortened week, when indices showed some life. Still, there is some extreme volatility under the surface, with cybersecurity names getting wrecked as the new AI victims, while bifurcation continues, with optical space kept roaring. We maintain our overall beta view from the past couple of weeks, with little new to add here. Let’s get straight to the recap -

This week’s reports

LLM update - two different paths in the US and China. Our latest update on the LLM industry is here, where we discuss how Frontier Labs’ competition is diverging across the two hemispheres. While US AI labs are investing in large compute clusters, Chinese peers are focusing on cost optimizations, large-scale deployments, and rapid integration into consumer infra.

In the mid- to long-term, we don’t expect Chinese LLMs to disrupt the US LLM market; paying a premium for superior models remains the prevailing trend. However, Seed and Seedance are indeed outliers compared to other Chinese LLMs. ByteDance is aiming for parity with OpenAI, which is likely why it is the only Chinese player aggressively sourcing mid-training data.