NVDA 1Q25:Slightly Beat North American Expectations, Gross Margins Resume Upward Trajectory

We published our NVDA Preview ahead of NVDA's earnings release, and NVDA's performance was largely in line with our Preview.

Key Takeaway

The earnings report broadly aligns with our previous preview. The after-hours stock rally primarily reflects Q2 guidance beating North American consensus of $44bn. Despite the impact of canceled H20 shipments ($8bn), NVIDIA's $45bn revenue guidance validates our earlier observations of positive B200 developments in the Taiwanese supply chain. Additionally, GPM slightly exceeded market expectations as GB200 yield rates improved, with management clearly signaling a return to GPM uptrend in Q2, alleviating concerns that Q1 wasn't the margin bottom. Considering potential temporary GPM disruptions from GB300 shipments in Q3, we maintain our FY25 EPS forecast of $4.7.

NVIDIA FY25 Q1 Key Metrics

• Q1 revenue: $44.1bn, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 60.5% and 71.3% respectively, EPS of $0.89, and Data Center revenue reaching $39.1bn

• Q2 guidance: Revenue of $45.0bn, GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 71.8% and 72.0% respectively (+/- 50 basis points), reaffirming year-end GPM target in mid-70% range

Q1 revenue aligned with our expectations