FIG 2Q25:Cautious Guidance Raises Structural Growth Concerns; AI and Pricing Upside Still Untapped

Deviation From Buy-Side Expectations

The reported results diverged meaningfully from buy-side expectations. Some investors had assumed:

Management intentionally guided conservatively at IPO to enable larger beats, business fundamentals would continue along prior trends, and incremental tailwinds from recent price increases and AI product commercialization would prevent deceleration in 2Q and forward guidance.

However, actual results and outlook showed a notable gap versus these expectations.

Previously, we highlighted the potential uplift from AI and pricing changes, expecting meaningful contribution to revenue. Yet, management offered no specific revenue contribution from AI this year, and guided that pricing changes would contribute a mid- to high-single-digit uplift in FY25. For 2Q, the benefit was offset by other factors, with a more visible impact expected in 4Q and 1Q26, when Organization and Enterprise customers renew.

Guidance indicates deceleration in revenue growth. This raised buy-side concerns about whether Figma’s core business fundamentals are being challenged, with its competitive moat proving shallower than previously assumed, leading to pressure on both new customer acquisition and retention.(e.g. the competition from Lovable, Cursor, and Nano Banana, etc.)

Overall, both reported results and management’s cautious tone point to rising uncertainty—an area warranting further research.

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