NVDA: GTC Washington - Demand Still Structurally Outstrips Supply

NVIDIA hosted GTC in Washington, D.C., on October 28. During the event, CEO Jensen Huang disclosed that the company has accumulated over $500 billion orders for its Blackwell and Rubin GPUs (including networking) through CY2026. This translates to a total of 20 million GPUs, of which 6 million have already been shipped. This implies approximately $400 billion in orders are scheduled for delivery over the next five quarters, significantly surpassing the consensus of $300 billion for the same period.

The outlook provided at GTC aligns with our long-standing thesis: demand continues to substantially outstrip supply, with the primary bottleneck being TSMC’s CoWoS capacity. Six weeks ago, we pointed out that NVIDIA’s CoWoS orders for next year were increased to more than 800k, up from the previously 600k. Recently, we have learned that TSMC has increased orders for CoWoS equipment, which is expected to pull forward the planned year-end 2026 capacity to mid-2026. If TSMC can fully meet NVIDIA’s current CoWoS requirements, we estimate NVIDIA’s CY2026 EPS could reach at least $9-$9.5.