Research|SNDK Investor Day 2026: Focus Shifts to Earnings Sustainability

The Long-Term Sustainable Model SanDisk presented at its Investor Day reinforces the view we set out in our takeaway from the Future of Memory and Storage Conference 2026: the recent deceleration in ASP gains is a healthy development for the memory market, not a signal of impending industry oversupply. With LTAs/NBMs taking a rising share of supply and the product mix shifting further toward data centers, we expect memory pricing to hover near elevated levels rather than collapse after the peak. Memory vendors' earnings power should therefore prove more sustainable through a prolonged period of tight supply.

Source: SanDisk Investor Day 2026

We currently model a mild pricing pullback in CY2028 and a mid-to-high-teens bit shipment CAGR for FY2028–FY2030, in line with the company’s long-term bit supply growth target. Under this base case, we project CY2027/28/29 EPS of $292/$334/$388, implying forward P/E multiples of 5.2x/4.6x/3.9x at the current share price.

Source: Company documents, FUNDA estimates