Research|MRVL: Investor Day Targets Move Closer to Our Forecasts

Marvell outlined an ambitious outlook at its October 6 investor day, targeting CY30 (FY31) revenue of $80b at the midpoint and non-GAAP EPS of more than $30.

Marvell described a diversified portfolio built to capture AI infrastructure growth:

• Optical interconnect products across form factors (pluggables, NPO and CPO) and distances (scale-in to scale-across).
• Large custom XPU programs.
• A broad XPU attach portfolio that builds on hyperscalers’ familiarity with its off-the-shelf products and growing demand for custom solutions.

In our earnings reviews, we have repeatedly noted that Marvell had room to raise its interconnect and custom revenue guidance. Its guidance is now catching up with our model. We think this and the more ambitious 2030 targets reflect greater confidence in the supply chain. The investor day follows Matt Murphy’s comments about suppliers at the Citi TMT conference last month and recent deals with GlobalFoundries and AT&S. COO Chris Koopmans said key foundry, substrate and packaging suppliers receive five-year forecasts and had already seen the $70–90b FY31 target before the event. Marvell is making capacity payments to reserve supply ahead of revenue. He also stressed that demand and supply are in place to support the $20b FY28 revenue target.