META
Research|META: Muse Growth May Moderate Briefly, Then Pick Up as Retention Improves
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Muse growth may pause as costs limit scaling, but rising D14 retention points to stronger growth ahead.
Agent Retention Doesn't Behave Like Consumer App Retention
Two weeks ago we published our note on Muse monetization.
Agent products retain users very differently from most consumer internet products.
Most consumer apps launch with their core features already in place, so retention settles early.
Some apps keep improving retention for months or even years after launch. Social media and short-video platforms are the obvious examples. Network effects and a growing base of content and connections make them stickier over time.
Agents look more like the second group. According to our estimates, the ChatGPT app's D14 retention sat around 10% for its first six months and only moved above 10% in late 2023. It is now approaching 25% (Figure 1).
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