PLTR 4Q25: Continue to Accelerate, but Competition Concerns Intensify

With Channel Partner Expecting Growth To Sustain Or Reaccelerate Into 2026, Despite Rising Competitive Risks

Based on feedback from Channel Partner checks and analysis of publicly available data, Palantir is likely to sustain its overall acceleration trend in this quarter, with a relatively high probability of delivering a beat magnitude comparable to recent quarters.

The primary driver is a substantial increase in new US government orders booked in Q3, which is expected to contribute meaningfully to government revenue in Q4.

On the US commercial side, momentum continues to track strong growth. International commercial revenue, according to Channel Partner feedback, remains on a recovery trajectory, although this does not yet represent a structural inflection point.

Looking ahead to 2026, Channel Partner believes Palantir can maintain or modestly accelerate its growth trajectory. At the same time, competitive intensity is increasing, particularly from large model providers and data platform vendors launching agentic products. While the gap of products appears to be narrowing, there has not yet been a material impact on Palantir’s business, though developments are being actively monitored.

A. Overall: Growth Versus Competition