META 4Q24: Intact Fundamentals Could Drive 4Q Beat But Risk In Guidance

We conducted thorough research on META's 4Q24 results and 1Q25 guidance, covering 4Q24 ad spend survey summary, 2025 ad spend outlook, potential TikTok impact, Applovin impact, progress on META's key ad products, and our 4Q24 and 1Q25 revenue forecasts.

4Q24 Ad Spend Survey

We interviewed 4 ad agencies we continuously track, including a North American agency, a global agency, a European agency, and an Asia-Pacific agency.

Our conversations suggest 4Q24 was a decent quarter, with signs pointing to accelerated ad revenue growth.

Agency 1 - North American platform lead handling >$100M annual ad spend:

• "4Q performance significantly exceeded expectations. We previously expected 20% y/y growth but achieved 24%. Better sentiment entering 4Q after recession worries in Q3 boosted advertiser willingness."

• "About half the outperformance stemmed from efficiency gains from CRM platform integration driving better attribution and ROI."

• "The U.S. macro sentiment was better than Europe's overall. Most verticals grew well, with e-commerce retail (35% of spend) up 28% y/y - a key AI beneficiary. Travel also did very well at +28% y/y."