MDB FY4Q26: LLMs Migrating to NoSQL

This quarter, we spoke with three MDB channel partners. Overall demand trends were positive, with an optimistic outlook for 2026. AI has emerged as one of the most important growth drivers for MDB, including the expansion of vector search usage driven by VoyageAI and the acceleration of AI-related Atlas migrations. Meanwhile, both Anthropic and OpenAI are encountering bottlenecks in their PostgreSQL architectures following a surge in agent workloads, prompting migrations to NoSQL databases. We maintain a constructive view on MDB as an AI beneficiary, while acknowledging that its elevated valuation will continue to weigh on the stock.

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Business Performance: AI-Driven Usage Continues to Accelerate

North America Channel Partner A

• Nov–Jan quarter MDB business grew 26% YoY, reaching the high end of the 25–26% guidance range, continuing to accelerate vs. the prior three quarters; full-year growth was 21%

• 2026 growth expected to accelerate to approximately 26–28%, with AI-related contributions accounting for approximately 40–45%, including:

  • Acceleration of AI-driven cloud migrations

  • Vector database usage growth

  • AI-induced expansion of existing workloads

North America Channel Partner B