CRM 2Q25: Channel Checks Point to Modest Q2, Slightly Better H2; Guidance on Data Cloud and Agentforce Could Be Game-Changers

Overview

Based on channel feedback, the probability of Salesforce delivering a material beat this quarter appears low. Overall conditions for the second half are expected to improve modestly, primarily due to order deferrals from H1 and the upcoming Dreamforce event in October, which partners view as a positive catalyst. Dreamforce will concentrate incentives and push deal closures, but given its timing one month later than last year, it also creates greater Q4 pressure and uncertainty. Considering that management already raised full-year guidance slightly last quarter, the probability of another major upward revision this quarter is limited.

That said, the contribution from Data Cloud and Agentforce to YoY growth is gradually expanding. Feedback remains constructive, and adoption progress in H2 will be a key driver for growth recovery. Whether management provides incremental positive commentary during earnings will be closely watched.

Channel checks for Q2 indicate performance broadly in line with prior targets, with some outperformance in select cases:

• Outperformers: Certain channels exceeded targets, largely driven by Data Cloud and Einstein/Agentforce bundling alongside large renewals.

• Underperformers: Others fell short due to insufficient pipeline, immature Revenue Cloud Advanced capabilities, and limited Agentforce adoption.

• Market divergence: Large enterprise and Data Cloud-driven deals outperformed, while SMB partners reported flat to negative growth.