AWS 3Q25: AWS Acceleration Ahead, but TRN3 Remains the Key

We currently lack the capability to conduct in-depth research and data adjustments on AMZN’s e-commerce business, so we’re focusing on a straightforward AWS analysis.

AWS GPU and Training Shipment estimates are primarily based on our supply chain research. We’ve published two prior AWS Previews: our 1Q25 Preview was highly accurate, but we overestimated 2Q25 by 0.5%. Based on our latest research, we attribute this to rapid price cuts driven by low Trainum2 utilization. Top-tier customers may already be leasing Trainum2 at $0.4-0.5 per hour.

This report covers AWS, GPU and TPU shipments and their AWS impact, plus potential e-commerce headwinds next year.

AWS Model Update and Research

AWS Model Update