ASML 1Q26: Demand Remains Strong; The Only Headwind is ASML’s Capacity

Over the past three months, the industry trends we highlighted in our first ASML report in January have increasingly gained investor recognition: 1) TSMC is revising its EUV procurement volumes upward due to a shortage in advanced node capacity; 2) Chinese demand has shown strong resilience—as evidenced by recent news of CXMT’s aggressive DUV procurement; and 3) the business recovery for Intel Foundry and Samsung Foundry is also underway.

In addition to the progress mentioned in our previous reports, equipment demand continues to be driven by recent developments in the memory industry, including SK Hynix’s $8bn EUV procurement announcement, Micron’s upward revision of CapEx, and media reports of Samsung procuring 20 EUV machines (although the company later denied a finalized decision, the matter remains under internal discussion).

Shortages in AI Compute Power and Memory Continue to Drive Equipment Demand

Since the beginning of the year, progress in AI demand has been super rapid. Anthropic’s ARR has surged from >$9bn at the end of 2025 to >$30bn in April 2026, proving that AI can be successfully converted into revenue and drive semiconductor-related demand. Following ASML’s 4Q25 earnings, CapEx guidance from CSPs also significantly exceeded original market expectations; the market now expects the 2026 CapEx for the four major CSPs to reach $620bn, far surpassing previous estimates.

MATCH Act Remains in Early Legislative Stages, Limited Impact on 2026