Preview|NVDA FY27Q3: HBM Delays May Slow the Rubin Ramp; Near-Term Demand Remains Solid

B300 continues to ramp strongly, supporting near-term results. We expect earlier HBM delays to push back some Rubin shipments, while customer demand remains solid. Our model forecasts FY27Q3 revenue of $109.4b, non-GAAP gross margin of 74.3% and diluted EPS of $2.52. The main issues for the outlook are margin pressure from memory price increases and the product transition, data center deployment delays, and neocloud financing risks.

Earlier HBM Delays May Slow the FY27Q4 Rubin Ramp

We expect FY27Q4 Rubin GPU shipments to fall slightly below earlier expectations because of shipment delays caused by prior HBM delays. Customer demand remains solid, and B300 demand should support near-term results. We expect the delayed Rubin shipments to move into 2027.

We see next quarter’s gross margin guidance as more important than revenue performance. Higher HBM prices and learning-curve costs during the initial Rubin production ramp are putting pressure on near-term margins. Changes to the shipment schedule may also affect product mix and the absorption of initial production costs.

Data Center Deployment and Financing Risks

Following the Texas gubernatorial election, investors are concerned that the incoming state administration could delay approvals for new data centers in the state, putting pressure on hardware and semiconductor suppliers. Our understanding is that slower data center deployment has left some US CSPs holding three months of memory/storage inventory.