Preview|ASML 2Q26: Raising EUV Shipment Expectations

Supply Bottlenecks Easing, Demand Still Strong

With ASML's supply bottlenecks easing, we raise our 2026/27 EUV shipment forecasts to 66 and 95 units. For 2028, we now expect 109 units.

On the demand side, both memory and logic remain strong. In memory, Micron raised its CapEx guidance for this fiscal year from USD 25bn to about USD 27bn at its late-June earnings call, and next year's CapEx should exceed the previously communicated USD 40-45bn range. Shortly after, the South Korean government, together with Samsung and SK Hynix, announced an investment plan of roughly USD 3.1tn. The plan mostly pulls forward projects originally slated for 2047 and 2045 (Samsung and SK Hynix, respectively) to 2040 and 2033 rather than adding new near-term spending. However, it still gives equipment makers more confidence in long-term orders.

In advanced nodes, we expect TSMC to accelerate its capacity build-out as ASML increases EUV supply. We also see Intel possibly raising its 2026 CapEx guidance from USD 18bn to USD 20bn at its Q2 earnings call; if it does, the move matters even more for Intel itself.

China Demand

Management's previous comments on China remained conservative. But with CXMT and YMTC going public this year, both memory makers will have to expand capacity. SMIC and Hua Hong also remain capacity-tight and continue to add mature-node capacity. All of this is incremental demand for ASML in China.