Preview|ASML 26Q3: Raising EUV Shipment Expectations Again

Capacity Expansion Likely to Accelerate

We believe ASML will further ease its capacity bottlenecks, with 2027 low-NA EUV capacity likely to exceed 95 units, above the company's current guidance of 85 units. Our industry checks also indicate the supply chain is planning production around higher shipment targets. We keep our 2026 total EUV shipment forecast at 70 units and raise 2027/28 to 100/125 units.

Memory demand remains strong; EUV is a key route to higher output. At its late-September FY26Q4 earnings call, Micron guided FY27Q1 CapEx of about $11.5b and 1H FY27 CapEx of about $25b, with 2H higher than 1H, implying more than $50b for the full year. With DRAM cleanroom space in short supply and strategic customer agreements (SCAs) providing demand visibility through the end of the decade, we expect Micron to pull forward some equipment purchases to add capacity. In late July, SK hynix raised its 2026 CapEx to the high end of the KRW 40tn range, mainly because M15X mass production was brought forward and the Yongin Fab 1 cleanroom opening was moved up from May 2027 to February, with a rapid capacity ramp to follow. With cleanroom space now a hard constraint, memory makers can raise supply by adopting more EUV in place of DUV multi-patterning, which cuts process steps, frees up fab space and increases output per wafer. Samsung has also announced plans to introduce high-NA EUV into DRAM mass production by 2028, so memory manufacturing is set to require more lithography equipment.