Deep|Ibiden: The Substrate Seller’s Market Has Only Just Begun

Executive Summary

Ibiden's (4062 JP) core driver remains qualified high-end ABF capacity failing to keep pace with the area and layer count of AI silicon. Intel/AMD server CPU shipments grow +36%/+62% in 2027 on new platforms 56–63% larger in substrate area, widening the CPU gap further. GPUs and EMIB-T consume the highest-end capacity: Rubin yields only 12 units per panel, TPU V9 / Trainium 4 only 4. The next pricing step falls on 27Q1 contract renewals, where new products can price above legacy agreements. We forecast FY3/27 / FY3/28 revenue growth of 35% / 30% and EPS of JPY173 / JPY267; at ~45x FY3/28E PE the shares still have rerating room, with the FY27Q2 results call the near-term catalyst.

• CPU demand is back and widens the supply gap. Resident agents such as Muse push workloads back onto CPUs via headless browsers and high-frequency API calls, and Intel can currently fill only ~50% of orders; shipments have upside if capacity allows. FUNDA models Intel server CPU shipments of 26.5mn units in 2027E (+36%) and AMD 20.4mn (+62%); multiplied by substrate area 63% larger for Diamond Rapids vs. Granite Rapids and 56% larger for Venice vs. Turin, substrate-area demand grows far faster than unit count. Supply is not only limited but already allocated: tier-1 and tier-2 makers are all full as of 26Q4, lead times are 48–52 weeks, total 2027 capacity grows only ~10–15%, and a visible shortfall opens from 27Q1. Customers that did not co-fund capacity sit lower in the allocation queue. This is already visible at Ibiden: AMD substrate revenue declines sequentially through 2H FY3/27 as capacity temporarily allocated to AMD returns to Intel; this does not reflect weaker AMD demand.