Deep|FTAI: Aviation Aftermarket Meets AI Power

Executive Summary

• We initiate coverage of FTAI, an independent aviation aftermarket platform focused on the CFM56-5B/-7B and V2500 engine families. It is expanding into power generation by converting CFM56 engines into aeroderivative turbines. FTAI is the second BTM solution provider we have covered, after Bloom Energy. We remain bullish on off-grid power providers. As estimated in our AIDC Deep Dive****, North America could face a ~15GW power shortfall in 2027. Securing grid power could take ~5 years, while traditional gas turbine OEMs such as GEV are booked out to 2032 with cash commitments. We are therefore looking for alternative BTM providers with reliable technology and confirmed orders.
• FTAI trades at ~10.5x forward EV/EBITDA and has yet to receive the re-rating seen at other BTM providers, despite the $1.465b Power order announced in late July. We see two reasons. Its traditional Leasing and MRE businesses face pressure on margins and industry demand. Its Power business has yet to deliver Mod-1 units to customers, making future earnings harder to assess. Bears still view Mod-1 as a prototype rather than a mature commercial product.
• In short, we believe that margin compression in its MRE business does not prevent it from maintaining earnings growth, supported by expanding market share from ~15% to ~26% based on our proprietary supply-demand industry model; and Power could deliver ~10 Mod-1 products in 26Q4 vs LSD consensus; ~80 in 2027 vs ~70 consensus and ~100 company maximum target. Management were guiding $450-750mn Adj. EBITDA in Power, suggesting a range of ~60 to 100 Mod-1 deliveries as guidance in 2027.