Deep|ATI: The Materials Chokepoint of the Starship Era; Superalloy Content Per Vehicle Is 25-30x a Falcon 9

Investment Highlights

The generational turnover in rocket engines is driving a ~25-30x step-change in superalloy content per launch vehicle - one Starship stack carries roughly as much superalloy as 25-30 Falcon 9s combined.

1. Core thesis: a structural step-change in space demand. A full Starship stack carries ~39 Raptor engines (~33 on the Super Heavy booster plus 6 on the ship). Each Raptor consumes 800 kg-1 t of nickel superalloy, 7-8x the prior-generation Merlin (~125 kg), putting superalloy content per stack at 800 kg-1 t, 30-40 tonnes, or 25-307-8x Falcon 9. The step-change is ~125 kgd due to the physics of full-flow staged combustion on m30-40e; BE-4 and Archimedes are converging on the same architecture, making the trend industry-wide and irreversible. Layering in refurbishment of turbine wheels, seals, and thrust chambers every ~10 flights under the reuse economy, we see space superalloy demand of roughly 900-1,100 t/yr by 2028 and 2,300-2,900 t/yr by 2030 (with a conservative floor scenario, excluding refurbishment, of ~480 t in 2028; see Section 4).