Deep|AIDC: Answering Six Key Investor Questions

After we published our AIDC report on 27 August, investors questioned our conversion of turbine nameplate capacity into data-center power. We had estimated that AIDC could claim roughly 18 GW of large gas-turbine nameplate in 2027, but investors felt our haircut to delivered power was too aggressive. The published version adjusted grid-connected units for derating, engineering readiness and PUE. For genuinely off-grid, behind-the-meter (BTM) units, we applied the engineering-readiness adjustment and then divided by an over-provisioning multiple of 1.9–3.0×. That multiple is the focus of this follow-up.

We conducted another round of channel checks and rebuilt the coefficients linking IT load to nameplate capacity for off-grid projects. The tables identify the source of each input so readers can reproduce the calculation.

We address six questions: why off-grid designs require 2.4–3.0× provisioning when nameplate supply appears ample; whether the derates are too severe; whether gas engines and batteries reduce the multiple; why a large backlog does not translate into near-term delivery; whether Chinese equipment can fill the gap; and whether Europe and Southeast Asia can absorb demand displaced from the US.

#1 Why does an off-grid data center need 2.4–3.0 MW of turbine nameplate per MW of IT when turbine supply looks ample?